Politics & Funk

Life’s but a walking shadow, a poor player, that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more; it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

–William Shakespeare

Some have called it Super Tuesday Two, others Super Tuesday Showdown. But regardless of your preferred nomenclature, it’s a mere twelve hours away from arriving on the ornately decorated doorstep of America’s political consciousness.

Tomorrow Senator Clinton and Senator Obama will face off once again, this time in a four-state brawl that has the potential to finally conclude a long and drawn out battle for the Democratic nomination. With Obama the winner of eleven straight primaries–and currently leading Clinton by 156 pledged delegates–many political pundits believe that Mrs. Clinton must win both delegate rich Ohio and Texas to remain in the race.

“She has a shot,” said Democratic strategist James Carville recently, adding that he’s granted Mrs. Clinton’s request to feverously rub his head during the election returns for good luck.

However, others seem much less confident in Hillary’s chances of winning big. Last week, Newsweek columnist Jonathan Alter suggested that Hillary should drop out before the March 4 primaries and endorse Obama.

“Hillary has only one shot—for Obama to trip up so badly that he disqualifies himself, said Alder, adding,”nothing in the last 14 months suggests he will.”

Alder may be right about Mrs. Clinton’s chances. In fact, it appears that even if she does prevail in Texas and Ohio many political pundits and Democratic luminaries will still be clamoring for her to withdraw. Former New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson recently said on CNN that “whoever has the most delegates after Tuesday, a clear lead, should be, in my judgment, the nominee.”

Utilizing the nifty delegate counter provided by Slate.com, I plugged in a Hillary dream scenario for tomorrow night’s results. As you can see, even with the loftiest of estimates, Senator Clinton will pick up only 20 delegates–leaving her 136 behind Mr. Obama.

So, how can Hillary gain ground?

Well, she may be get some unsuspected help from America’s favorite rabid, pill-popping, avuncular, right-wing radio host, Rush Limbaugh. On his show this afternoon, Limbaugh urged his supporters to vote for Clinton in tomorrow’s primary, stating that “[Republicans] need Barack Obama bloodied up politically.” However, for all of Rush’s delightful charisma, it’s unlikely that many conservatives will actually be able to stomach pulling the lever for Mrs. Clinton once they’re inside the voting booth.

My prediction is that Mrs. Clinton will win narrowly in Ohio and decisively in Rhode Island, while Senator Obama will barely win Texas and easily win Vermont. In any scenario in which Mrs. Clinton wins fewer pledged delegates than Obama overall, she’ll likely drop out. But if she pulls out both Texas and Ohio and ends up on the plus side for Tuesday–even if it’s just by a modicum– I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Democratic race last through April and until June.

And to be honest, I’m kind of excited for that.